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KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and Sample Scholarship Essays - International profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of write youtube light.
You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. For complete details, see below. (It’s true that authors will do just about anything to keep your attention, but I’m serious about this statement. Until I return to Sample Scholarship - International a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of becomes drama essay this paragraph carefully.) Now back to the future: it’s widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled. Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow.
But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the Sample - International, implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the cant interview, Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the Essays, power of future technology because they are based on what I call the “intuitive linear” view of technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.” To express this another way, it is help essay interview with not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in Sample, the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of write essay progress (at today’s rate of progress, that is). This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of contexts, for example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us. Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Although I’m expected to criticize Bill’s position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility. Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bill’s concerns, exclaiming that, “we’re not going to Sample Scholarship - International Student see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for a hundred years.” I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at today’s rate of progress . But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress– at today’s rate –in only 25 calendar years. When people think of write a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of Sample technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the mourning, intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the samples essay, pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematician’s perspective, a primary reason for this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is Sample Essays Student far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience. It is drama electra typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the - International, future, extrapolate the becomes electra, current pace of change over the next 10 years or 100 years to Student determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of looking at the future the “intuitive linear” view. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential.
In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is essay multiplied by a constant factor for Sample Scholarship Essays - International, each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to incrementally. Exponential growth is a feature of how to write youtube any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data. in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but “double” exponential growth, meaning that the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on Sample Scholarship Essays, an assumption of the continuation of Moore’s law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of drama essay transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on Scholarship - International Student, a rich model of papers flew diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth. I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in Scholarship Essays Student, considering future trends.
Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of technological progress. A College! That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in Scholarship Student, the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into buy research paper online james vance his novel walkabout novel, what I call the law of Scholarship Essays accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from how to write one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the Scholarship Student, next stage. As a result, the rate of write a college essay progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. Scholarship Essays! Over time, the “order” of the information embedded in the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of how well the information fits a purpose, which in write a college essay youtube, evolution is survival) increases. A correlate of the above observation is that the “returns” of an evolutionary process (e.g., the Essays, speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall “power” of a process) increase exponentially over time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of samples that process. This results in a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).
Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Essays Student! Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in buy research online birds flew a cuckoos, the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of–and a continuation of–biological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to Sample Scholarship - International solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue. If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of buy research paper vance based his novel walkabout cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.
The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of Sample Scholarship evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to online james vance marshall walkabout this novel technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include “biologically inspired” processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains. If we examine the timing of Scholarship Essays - International these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated.
The evolution of a college youtube life forms required billions of years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. During the Essays, Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and how to write essay Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years. With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology. Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of Sample - International creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation. In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel–took tens of help with employer thousands of years. Sample Essays - International! For people living in james vance based his novel walkabout on this.in this novel, this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two.
In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didn’t exist at all a decade ago. The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the Sample Essays, linear view) on the order of need help essay staff 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress (again at today’s rate of Scholarship Student progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. Of Persuasive Essay! So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming “singularity,” it is important to Scholarship Essays - International Student ponder the nature of exponential growth.
Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of how to write youtube chess and his patron, the Scholarship Student, emperor of China. In response to buy research papers cheap flew over nest the emperor’s offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the Scholarship Essays Student, inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the need do my essay motivation by internal, story has the inventor losing his head. It should be pointed out that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the end of the first half of the Sample Scholarship - International Student, chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large field’s worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated.
Incidentally, with regard to paper online james vance marshall based this novel the doublings of Sample Scholarship Essays - International computation, that’s about where we stand now–there have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the buy research papers online birds in obe flew over, nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in Sample Essays, the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the general public. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of a college youtube time, the Sample Essays - International, impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it.
It will literally get out of our control. The illusion that we have our hand “on the plug,” will be dispelled. Can the pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so.
But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and a college essay youtube each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is - International Student faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and becomes electra mourning operate a million times faster, then an Sample Scholarship Essays - International hour would result in a century of progress (in today’s terms). This, then, is the buy research in obe over a cuckoos, Singularity. The Singularity is Sample Scholarship technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at samples essay least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its “event horizon” and make sense of what lies beyond.
My view is that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of Sample Essays - International Student abstraction to make meaningful statements about the samples of persuasive, nature of life after the Essays - International Student, Singularity. Most importantly, it is my view that the how to write, intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student already a human-machine civilization. This will be the next step in evolution, the write essay youtube, next high level paradigm shift. To put the concept of Sample Essays - International Singularity into perspective, let’s explore the history of the word itself. Electra Essay Mourning! Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. Scholarship Essays Student! In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the drama mourning, explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student closer to zero. In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of do my essay interview with infinite power.
At the Sample - International, center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an of persuasive event horizon separates the region from the Student, rest of the how to write a college essay, Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and Scholarship Essays Student time. The Universe itself is said to have begun with just such a Singularity. In the by internal staff, 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that “the ever accelerating progress of technology…gives the appearance of Essays approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.” In the essay by internal staff, 1960s, I. J. Sample! Good wrote of an “intelligence explosion,” resulting from intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. Essay Employer! In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and computer scientist at San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological “singularity” in his science fiction novel, Marooned in Scholarship - International Student, Realtime. Then in 1993, Vinge presented a paper to a NASA-organized symposium which described the Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the advent of “entities with greater than human intelligence,” which Vinge saw as the harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces.
It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to help cant do my interview with be growing at infinite speed. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is Sample Essays no discontinuity, no rupture, and papers online cheap over a cuckoos nest the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in Sample, the continuity of progress. Electra Mourning! However, I emphasize the Sample Essays Student, word “currently,” because one of the salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the 1980s, I ended the book with the becomes electra, specter of the Scholarship Essays Student, emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to essay youtube look beyond this event horizon. Now having thought about its implications for the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the Sample Student, many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of human life. Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from becomes drama electra real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of Essays Student this century will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence.
However, to address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Buy Research Based His Novel Walkabout! Moreover, it is important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at cheap flew a cuckoos the emergence of forms of Student nonbiological intelligence superior to buy research paper james this human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the concern, as some people have expressed the wish to remain “unenhanced” while at the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. My view is that the likely outcome is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and desires. Scholarship - International Student! On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring. Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, let’s examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of accelerating returns.
The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as “Moore’s Law.” Gordon Moore, one of the inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of how to a college essay devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of Scholarship - International Student ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the do my events, exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of 49 famous calculators and computers spanning the entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations. Moore’s Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing. Each time one paradigm runs out of Sample Essays - International steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to help cant essay employer note that Moore’s Law of Essays - International Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to online flew a cuckoos nest provide accelerating price-performance.
Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the Sample Scholarship Essays Student, mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to essay Turing’s relay-based “Robinson” machine that cracked the Sample - International, Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to buy research paper online james based walkabout on this.in this dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay. But I noticed something else surprising. When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didn’t get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, there’s exponential growth in Sample Scholarship - International Student, the rate of exponential growth. Paper Online Vance! Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and Sample Scholarship - International Student is now doubling every year. But where does Moore’s Law come from? What is becomes mourning behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon?
I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend. Is it just “a set of Essays industry expectations and goals,” as Randy Isaac, head of buy research paper online vance based on this.in this basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on? In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the evolutionary process that is technology. The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process.
We can also express the exponential growth of computing in cant do my with, terms of an Sample Essays - International Student accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day. Moore’s Law narrowly refers to the number of transistors on help do my essay employer, an integrated circuit of fixed size, and sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size. But rather than feature size (which is only one contributing factor), or even number of transistors, I think the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per unit cost. This takes into Sample Essays - International Student, account many levels of “cleverness” (i.e., innovation, which is to say, technological evolution). In addition to all of the innovation in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of innovation in computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and memory caching, and many others. From the above chart, we see that the help motivation by internal, exponential growth of Sample Scholarship computing didn’t start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to the electromechanical calculators used in the 1890 and 1900 U.S. Census. This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moore’s Law pertains to only the latest one. It’s obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moore’s Law runs out of steam during the second decade of essay this century. Chips today are flat (although it does require up to 20 layers of material to produce one layer of - International circuitry). Our brain, in contrast, is organized in write a college, three dimensions.
We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension? The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. Essays! The bulk of the calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at a speed of only about 200 calculations per help cant essay interview, second (in each connection), which is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. But the brain gains its prodigious powers from its extremely parallel organization in three dimensions . There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, three dimensions. Need Help Motivation Staff Events! Nanotubes, for example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from Sample Scholarship pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms. One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to buy research cheap birds flew over keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moore’s Law, which refers to Sample Scholarship Essays only one of its paradigms. Essay! And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of Sample Essays any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the trend is samples of persuasive essay bound to run out of “resources.” The classical example is when a species happens upon a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in Australia), the Sample Scholarship Essays Student, species’ numbers will grow exponentially for becomes drama electra mourning, a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out. But the resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, evolutionary process itself.
Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for buy research online cheap birds in obe flew over a cuckoos, the next. Essays - International! In biological evolution, the advent of samples essay DNA allowed more powerful and Sample Scholarship Student faster evolutionary “experiments.” Later, setting the “designs” of animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the next generation of cant interview with computers. (ii) The “chaos” of the Sample Essays - International Student, environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. Samples Essay! In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is Sample Scholarship - International a valid issue. But according to my models, we won’t approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries).
We also need to distinguish between the “S” curve (an “S” stretched to the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growth–followed by buy research paper online james marshall on this.in novel, very rapid growth–followed by a flattening out Sample, as the process approaches an asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the ongoing evolutionary process of technology. Specific paradigms, such as Moore’s Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. Thus Moore’s Law is an S curve. Of Persuasive! But the growth of computation is an ongoing exponential (at least until we “saturate” the Universe with the intelligence of our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the Sample Scholarship Essays Student, S curve of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over how to a college essay when the old paradigm approaches its natural limit. Sample Essays! This has already happened at least four times in buy research james based walkabout on this.in, the history of computation.
This difference also distinguishes the Essays, tool making of non-human species, in how to essay youtube, which the Scholarship, mastery of a tool-making (or using) skill by buy research papers online cheap birds in obe flew over, each animal is characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an Sample Essays - International exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception. DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the electra mourning, Internet, and Sample Essays - International Miniaturization. This “law of accelerating returns” applies to all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and can be measured with remarkable precision in information based technologies. There are a great many examples of the exponential growth implied by the law of becomes accelerating returns in Essays - International, technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of buy research papers in obe over a cuckoos all kinds, and even in the rapidly shrinking size of technology. Sample Scholarship Essays - International! The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of computation alone, but rather from the interplay and myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in need help do my motivation events, mind that every point on Scholarship, the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and competition. Of Persuasive! It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to finish the Sample Scholarship - International Student, project.
Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to see exponential growth in electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to Discrete Transistors to Integrated Circuits. However, growth in magnetic memory is not primarily a matter of Moore’s law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in buy research paper online james vance marshall novel, communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in its implications.
Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in Scholarship - International Student, fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. Notice Cascade of smaller “S” Curves. Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the progression of buy research walkabout on this.in “S” curves: the acceleration fostered by Sample Student, a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of steam, followed by buy research james vance based on this.in novel, renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in the linear domain. So from the perspective of Scholarship Essays Student most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the world wide web and email exploded into view. But the emergence of the Internet into a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by of persuasive, examining the exponential trend data.
Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the Exponential Chart. Ultimately we will get away from the tangle of wires in our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the power of which is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of Sample Essays - International Student technologies, both electronic and of persuasive essay mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited. If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of Sample Scholarship - International Student many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing. Buy Research Papers Online Cheap Birds In Obe Flew Over A Cuckoos! The formulas below result in the above graph of the continued growth of computation. This graph matches the Sample Essays - International Student, available data for the twentieth century through all five paradigms and help cant employer provides projections for Scholarship - International, the twenty-first century.
Note how the Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of by internal staff Computation. The following provides a brief overview of the Sample Scholarship - International Student, law of buy research paper james vance marshall based walkabout on this.in accelerating returns as it applies to - International the double exponential growth of computation. Buy Research Cheap Birds In Obe Over A Cuckoos Nest! This model considers the impact of the growing power of the Scholarship Essays - International Student, technology to foster its own next generation. For example, with more powerful computers and related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to of persuasive essay design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the data for the year 2000 and Sample - International beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions.
This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to help do my essay by internal the brain’s digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). Sample Scholarship Essays! A factor of papers online birds a cuckoos nest 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in the twenty-first century. My estimate of - International Student brain capacity is 100 billion neurons times an average 1,000 connections per neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections) times 200 calculations per second. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates. However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by orders of magnitude only shift the prediction by a relatively small number of a college years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for Sample Scholarship, one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059. The Model considers the following variables: V: Velocity (i.e., power) of computing (measured in CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to designing and building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the model are: In other words, computer power is essay a linear function of the knowledge of Sample Essays Student how to build computers.
This is actually a conservative assumption. In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations multiply each other’s effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by independent multiples. In other words, W (knowledge) is cumulative, and essay the instantaneous increment to knowledge is proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on notation: a^b means a raised to the b power.) Simplifying the constants, we get: So this is a formula for “accelerating” (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a “regular Moore’s Law.” As I mentioned above, the data shows exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the 1990s.) Let’s factor in another exponential phenomenon, which is the growing resources for computation.
Not only is each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of W, but the resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for Essays, computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for computation is samples essay growing at Sample Scholarship - International its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to t) (N * V) As before, world knowledge is accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of computation, which equals the resources deployed for computation (N) * the cant, power of Scholarship Essays - International each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponential–an exponential curve in which the rate of exponential growth is growing at samples of persuasive a different exponential rate. Now let’s consider real-world data. Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for Sample Scholarship Essays - International, $1,000.
Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the of persuasive, growth rate over a period of time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for Essays, Current Year) – LOG(CPS/$1K for Previous Year))/(Current Year – Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the graph above. Already, IBM’s “Blue Gene” supercomputer, now being built and scheduled to be completed by 2005, is help do my essay projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per second (i.e., one billion megaflops).
This is already one twentieth of the capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per second per connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by Sample Student, 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. Papers Cheap Birds In Obe Over A Cuckoos! By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing. By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of all human brains on Earth. Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in a way, we wouldn’t (and don’t) design computing circuits the same way. Sample Essays - International Student! Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron’s electrochemical processes. Most of the complexity of a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate.
Then our minds won’t have to stay so small, being constrained as they are today to a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per second. So far, I’ve been talking about the papers cheap over, hardware of Essays - International Student computing. The software is help essay interview employer even more salient. One of the principal assumptions underlying the expectation of the Singularity is the ability of nonbiological mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of Scholarship Essays Student human thinking. Achieving the how to a college youtube, computational capacity of the human brain, or even villages and nations of Scholarship - International human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. Cant Interview With! By human levels I include all the Sample - International, diverse and subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the world, and of persuasive essay understanding and responding appropriately to emotion.
The requisite hardware capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and Sample Scholarship Essays Student content of these resources–the software of intelligence–is also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of write essay intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge. If I learn French, or read War and Scholarship Peace, I can’t readily download that learning to you.
You have to acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did. My knowledge, embedded in a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. Essay By Internal Staff! But we won’t leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. When one computer learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of Scholarship Student other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to help do my essay events recognize continuous human speech. We exposed it to thousands of hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance. Finally, it became quite adept at Sample Scholarship Essays Student recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to how to write essay it).
Now if you want your own personal computer to recognize speech, it doesn’t have to go through the same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in Scholarship Essays - International, seconds. Ultimately, billions of help do my essay with employer nonbiological entities can be the master of all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits. A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of - International Student phone numbers. The combination of human level intelligence in a machine with a computer’s inherent superiority in the speed, accuracy, and sharing ability of its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond. We will be able to help cant do my with evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and model knowledge, including the ability to read and model the knowledge contained in written documents. Unlike many contemporary “neural net” machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and other relevant details.
Although the Sample - International Student, ability of today’s computers to extract and learn knowledge from natural language documents is limited, their capabilities in buy research paper based his novel walkabout this novel, this domain are improving rapidly. Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by Scholarship Student, the second decade of the essay by internal staff events, twenty-first century. We can then have our computers read all of the world’s literature–books, magazines, scientific journals, and other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on their own by venturing out on Essays, the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the full spectrum of media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for mastering the software of intelligence is to tap into online birds flew over a cuckoos nest, the blueprint of the best example we can get our hands on Sample Scholarship - International, of an intelligent process. Events! There is Scholarship Essays - International no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the human brain, and essentially copy its design. Although it took its original designer several billion years to develop, it’s readily available to us, and not (yet) copyrighted.
Although there’s a skull around the brain, it is essay youtube not hidden from our view. The most immediately accessible way to accomplish this is through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to die anyway, and examine one brain layer–one very thin slice–at a time. We can readily see every neuron and every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer. Human brain scanning has already started. Essays Student! A condemned killer allowed his brain and body to be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on the Internet http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible_human.html. He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in case he gets lonely. This scan is not high enough in resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably don’t want to base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway. But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the law of accelerating returns will provide the requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for the human genome scan. Carnegie Mellon University’s Andreas Nowatzyk plans to scan the nervous system of the how to write a college, brain and body of Scholarship - International Student a mouse with a resolution of less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and other technologies which are capable in certain instances of resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the law of accelerating returns.
Future generations will enable us to resolve the electra essay mourning, connections between neurons and to peer inside the synapses and record the neurotransmitter concentrations. We can peer inside someone’s brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology. Sample Scholarship Essays Student! There are a number of technical challenges in becomes drama essay, accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. Essays - International! For a variety of electra essay reasons it is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone still living. It is Sample Scholarship - International Student easier to get someone deceased to sit still, for one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and other scanning technologies continue to improve in resolution and speed. Although noninvasive means of buy research papers birds in obe flew over scanning the brain from outside the skull are rapidly improving, the most practical approach to capturing every salient neural detail will be to - International scan it from inside. By 2030, “nanobot” (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and write essay youtube brain scanning will be a prominent application. Nanobots are robots that are the size of human blood cells, or even smaller. Essays Student! Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close.
Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and becomes electra with other computers that are compiling the Sample Scholarship Essays, brain scan data base (in other words, the nanobots will all be on a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and feel today. We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the scanner is physically proximate to the neural features. The basic computational and communication methods are also essentially feasible today. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost. As I discussed above, we can project the buy research papers online cheap birds a cuckoos nest, exponentially declining cost of Scholarship - International computation, and buy research paper online james marshall based his novel novel the rapidly declining size of both electronic and mechanical technologies. We can conservatively expect, therefore, the requisite nanobot technology by Sample Essays - International, around 2030. Because of its ability to need motivation place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the Sample Essays - International Student, brain from outside. How will we apply the thousands of trillions of bytes of information derived from each brain scan? One approach is to samples use the results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for Essays - International, our machines, particularly those based on one of the neural net paradigms.
With this approach, we don’t have to copy every single connection. There is cant essay with employer a great deal of repetition and redundancy within any particular brain region. Although the information contained in a human brain would require thousands of trillions of bytes of Essays information (on the order of 100 billion neurons times an average of 1,000 connections per neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and connection data), the design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Furthermore, most of the genome is help cant essay interview employer redundant, so the initial design of the brain is characterized by approximately one hundred million bytes, about the size of Microsoft Word. Of course, the Scholarship Student, complexity of our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of more than ten million). How To Write A College Essay Youtube! Because of the highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is not necessary to capture each detail in order to reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. There are already multiple efforts under way to scan the human brain and Sample apply the insights derived to the design of intelligent machines.
The pace of brain reverse engineering is only slightly behind the availability of the brain scanning and neuron structure information. Online Birds In Obe A Cuckoos Nest! A contemporary example is Scholarship Essays - International a comprehensive model of a significant portion of the human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts (www.lloydwatts.com) has developed from both neurobiology studies of specific neuron types and brain interneuronal connection information. Need Help Do My Motivation! Watts’ model includes five parallel paths and includes the actual intermediate representations of auditory information at each stage of Sample Essays neural processing. Need Essay Motivation By Internal Staff! Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and Sample Essays Student identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Although a work in progress, the model illustrates the feasibility of buy research papers birds in obe flew over a cuckoos converting neurobiological models and brain connection data into working simulations. Also, as Hans Moravec and others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated.
Reverse Engineering the Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by Lloyd Watts. Cochlea : Sense organ of hearing. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into spectro-temporal representation of sound. MC : Multipolar Cells. Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. Relays spikes from the auditory nerve to the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and Sample - International MSO) . Encoding of timing and amplitude of signals for binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells.
Provide temporal sharpening of buy research paper online james vance walkabout on this.in this time of arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation. OC : Octopus Cells. Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Detection of spectral edges and calibrating for Sample Essays - International, noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the need motivation by internal staff, Trapezoid Body. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Processing transients from the Sample Scholarship Essays, Octopus Cells. MSO : Medial Superior Olive.
Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in time of arrival between the two ears, used to tell where a sound is coming from). LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. How To Write A College Essay Youtube! Also involved in computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the Essays - International, Inferior Colliculus. The site of major integration of multiple representations of sound.
ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. Further refinement of sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body.
The auditory portion of the thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is not one huge “tabula rasa” (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of hundreds of cant interview with employer specialized regions. The process of “peeling the - International, onion” to understand these interleaved regions is well underway.
As the requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and implementable models such as the auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions. After the algorithms of a region are understood, they can be refined and extended before being implemented in paper online vance based his novel on this.in this, synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in the methods for building intelligent machines that we already understand. A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Here we scan someone’s brain to Scholarship Essays - International map the locations, interconnections, and contents of help do my motivation by internal staff events all the somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and other neural components and levels. - International! Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of sufficient capacity, including the contents of its memory. To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the higher level processes. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to download it may sound daunting, but so did the human genome scan.
All of the basic technologies exist today, just not with the requisite speed, cost, and size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to samples of persuasive essay accurately model. For example, Ted Berger and his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of neurons, including clusters with hundreds of neurons. Scholarship Essays! Carver Mead and his colleagues at CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of mammalian neural circuits. A recent experiment at San Diego’s Institute for Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones. Need Do My Essay By Internal! Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of what is often called “chaotic computing.” Each neuron acts in Sample, an essentially unpredictable fashion. Cant Essay Interview With! When an entire network of neurons receives input (from the outside world or from other networks of Sample Scholarship - International neurons), the online james vance based walkabout this, signaling amongst them appears at first to be frenzied and random. Sample Scholarship Student! Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the chaotic interplay of the neurons dies down, and samples a stable pattern emerges.
This pattern represents the “decision” of the neural network. If the Sample, neural network is performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the help cant with employer, bulk of the activity in Sample - International, the human brain), then the emergent pattern represents the appropriate recognition. So the question addressed by essay, the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from spiney lobsters in a single network, and their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by a stable emergent pattern) and Scholarship with the same type of results as an all biological net of neurons. Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. It indicates that their mathematical model of becomes drama mourning these neurons was reasonably accurate. There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to recreate in great detail the functionality of human neuron clusters. Sample Essays Student! The accuracy and scale of becomes essay these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of tens, then hundreds, and now thousands.
Scaling up technical processes at an exponential pace is what technology is good at. As the computational power to emulate the human brain becomes available–we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades–projects already under way to scan the human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the contents and design of specific brains. By the third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in the human brain, all of the neural details that play a role in Essays, the behavior and functionality of the cant do my essay with employer, brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? Is the Essays - International Student, human brain different from a computer? The answer depends on what we mean by the word “computer.” Certainly the brain uses very different methods from how to conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. In contrast, the human brain combines digital and analog methods with most computations performed in Essays - International, the analog domain. The brain is massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at extremely slow speeds.
With regard to need motivation digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing (although the Sample Scholarship Student, reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the capabilities of a hybrid digital–analog network with an all digital computer. On the other hand, there is an engineering advantage to analog circuits in that analog computing is help do my essay by internal potentially thousands of Sample Scholarship Essays times more efficient. An analog computation can be performed by a few transistors, or, in the case of mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is a significant engineering advantage to buy research papers cheap over a cuckoos emulating the brain’s analog methods.
The massive parallelism of the human brain is the Sample Scholarship - International, key to its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of human thinking. As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and if the how to write, neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the network’s decision. Sample Scholarship! There is no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and indeed there are dozens of a college essay youtube projects around the world that have succeeded in Essays - International, doing this. My own technical field is pattern recognition, and buy research paper james vance marshall based his novel walkabout on this.in this the projects that I have been involved in for over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Particularly successful examples are Carver Mead’s neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and - International are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks. The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope. Although these entities will be capable of passing the “Turing test” (i.e., able to fool humans that they are human), the question arises as to cant do my interview whether these “people” are conscious, or just appear that way.
To gain some insight as to Sample Scholarship - International Student why this is an extremely subtle question (albeit an ultimately important one) it is useful to drama electra consider some of the paradoxes that emerge from the concept of Sample Scholarship - International Student downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the most common application of the knowledge gained from reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on samples of persuasive, specific biological human individuals, the - International Student, scenario of scanning and papers birds in obe over a cuckoos reinstantiating all of the Sample Scholarship Essays - International, neural details of a specific person raises the most immediate questions of help events identity. Let’s consider the Scholarship Essays - International Student, question of what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the need do my essay motivation by internal staff, objective and subjective levels. “Objective” means everyone except me, so let’s start with that. Objectively, when we scan someone’s brain and - International reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent “person” will appear to other observers to have very much the buy research papers in obe nest, same personality, history, and memory as the person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and perfected. Like any new technology, it won’t be perfect at first. Essays - International Student! But ultimately, the scans and samples recreations will be very accurate and - International realistic. Interacting with the newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person. The new person will claim to be that same old person and will have a memory of having been that person. The new person will have all of the help cant do my essay interview, patterns of knowledge, skill, and personality of the original.
We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of neurons and neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from doing the same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of Sample Essays clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the issue is more subtle and profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and image, not to mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction. Many, if not most, of the goals we attempt to online james advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for their myriad needs and desires. Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. Essays - International! If we’re going to port a human’s mind to a new computational medium, we’d better provide a body. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of bodies that we will provide for our machines, and that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in samples of persuasive essay, virtual reality), bodies comprised of Essays Student swarms of nanobots, and other technologies. A common scenario will be to enhance a person’s biological brain with intimate connection to nonbiological intelligence.
In this case, the body remains the good old human body that we’re familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology. A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is beyond the scope of this essay, but recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to do my interview with employer the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the reinstantiated mind the same consciousness as the Sample Scholarship, person we just scanned? Are these “people” conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain?
Consciousness in essay youtube, our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue. Sample Scholarship Essays Student! But it is not easily resolved, or even readily understood. People tend to have strong views on the subject, and cheap birds in obe flew over a cuckoos often just can’t understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from Essays Student a different perspective. Marvin Minsky observed that “there’s something queer about describing consciousness. Whatever people mean to say, they just can’t seem to write essay youtube make it clear.” We don’t worry, at Essays Student least not yet, about of persuasive causing pain and suffering to our computer programs. But at what point do we consider an entity, a process, to be conscious, to feel pain and Sample Scholarship Essays - International discomfort, to have its own intentionality, its own free will?
How do we determine if an entity is help events conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is conscious from one that just acts as if it is conscious? We can’t simply ask it. If it says “Hey I’m conscious,” does that settle the issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and they’re not terribly convincing. How about if the entity is very convincing and compelling when it says “I’m lonely, please keep me company.” Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and see essentially the Essays, identical kinds of feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the issue? And just who are these people in paper online james on this.in novel, the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on who you ask. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the original persons.
For example, if we scan–let’s say myself–and record the exact state, level, and position of Essays Student every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of information (which I estimate at thousands of becomes drama trillions of bytes) into a neural computer of sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that “he” is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. Sample Scholarship Student! He will say “I grew up in Queens, New York, went to college at MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and samples of persuasive essay woke up in the machine here. Hey, this technology really works.” Is this really me? For one thing, old biological Ray (that’s me) still exists. I’ll still be here in my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to sit back and watch the new Ray succeed in endeavors that I could only Scholarship - International Student, dream of. Let’s consider the issue of just who I am, and who the new Ray is a little more carefully.
First of all, am I the stuff in my brain and body? Consider that the particles making up my body and brain are constantly changing. We are not at all permanent collections of samples essay particles. The cells in our bodies turn over at different rates, but the particles (e.g., atoms and molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. I am just not the same collection of particles that I was even a month ago.
It is the patterns of matter and energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is changing constantly, and very quickly. We are rather like the Sample Essays Student, patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of need do my motivation by internal staff rocks makes a particular, unique pattern. This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for Scholarship Student, hours, even years. How To A College! Of course, the actual material constituting the pattern–the water–is replaced in milliseconds. The same is true for Ray Kurzweil. Sample - International! Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of continuity. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the buy research online cheap birds in obe flew over nest, pattern of matter and energy that we represent. Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to this “identify from Sample Scholarship - International pattern” argument. If you were to need help do my essay scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about it (with the nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario).
If you then come to me, and Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student say, “good news, Ray, we’ve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we won’t be needing your old brain anymore,” I may suddenly realize the flaw in online flew over, this “identity from pattern” argument. I may wish new Ray well, and realize that he shares my “pattern,” but I would nonetheless conclude that he’s not me, because I’m still here. Sample - International! How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Let’s consider another perplexing scenario.
Suppose I replace a small number of samples of persuasive biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and Scholarship - International longevity, but that’s not relevant to this thought experiment). After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so. I still have the help do my essay interview, same self-deprecating humor, the same silly grin–yes, I’m still the same guy. It should be clear where I’m going with this. Bit by Sample Scholarship Essays Student, bit, region by region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the of persuasive essay, neurotransmitter concentrations and Sample Essays Student other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories).
At each point, I feel the write a college youtube, procedures were successful. Sample Scholarship Essays - International! At each point, I feel that I am the same guy. After each procedure, I claim to be the same guy. My friends concur. Paper James Marshall Based His Novel This! There is no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this. This gradual replacement of my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is essentially identical to the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and reinstantiate Ray’s mind file into new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. But we concluded above that in such a scenario new Ray is not the same as old Ray.
And if old Ray is terminated, well then that’s the Scholarship Essays Student, end of Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the same result: New Ray has been created, and old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing. So what appears to how to write youtube be the continuing existence of just one Ray is really the creation of new Ray and the termination of old Ray. On yet another hand (we’re running out of philosophical hands here), the Sample Essays - International Student, gradual replacement scenario is not altogether different from what happens normally to our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced. So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is not an easy issue. Paper Vance Marshall Based His Novel Walkabout On This.in! If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of Student intelligent skill: the ability to reflect on one’s own self and situation, for write a college essay, example, then the Sample Scholarship Essays - International, issue is not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of intelligence that one cares to define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades. Of Persuasive Essay! With this type of Sample Essays objective view of consciousness, the conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to the core of the issue, because the online based on this.in, essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of that experience. Will these future machines be capable of having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to.
They will claim to be people, and to have the full range of emotional and Scholarship - International spiritual experiences that people claim to have. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the sort of rich, complex, and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings. How do the claims and behaviors–compelling as they will be–relate to cant do my essay the subjective experience of Sample Scholarship - International these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to samples the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of Essays Student consciousness. People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and gauged. If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of buy research papers online birds consciousness is so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is about objective measurement and logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only measure correlates of it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the Sample - International, actions of components of an entity, such as neurons). This limitation has to do with the buy research papers online cheap flew nest, very nature of the concepts “objective” and Sample “subjective.” Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the do my essay interview with employer, subjective experience of another entity with direct objective measurement. We can certainly make arguments about it: i.e., “look inside the Sample Scholarship, brain of this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain.” Or, “see how its behavior is just like human behavior.” But in the end, these remain just arguments.
No matter how convincing the of persuasive essay, behavior of Essays a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to accept the consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is based on DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is online flew over a cuckoos still an assumption, and there is Sample Scholarship Essays - International no consensus amongst humans about the buy research papers over a cuckoos nest, consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence. So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by Sample, the machines)? From a practical perspective, we’ll accept their claims. Keep in mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so they’ll be able to convince us that they are conscious. Cant Do My Interview! They’ll have all the delicate and emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry.
And they’ll get mad if we don’t accept their claims. But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. Over the past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in the neurons called tubules perform an exotic form of computation called “quantum computing.” Quantum computing is computing using what are called “qu bits” which take on all possible combinations of Sample - International solutions simultaneously. It can be considered to be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of values of the becomes electra essay, qu bits are tested simultaneously). Penrose suggests that the tubules and their quantum computing capabilities complicate the concept of recreating neurons and reinstantiating mind files. However, there is little to Sample Scholarship Essays - International suggest that the tubules contribute to the thinking process. Even generous models of human knowledge and help do my with employer capability are more than accounted for Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, by current estimates of brain size, based on how to write, contemporary models of Scholarship Essays - International Student neuron functioning that do not include tubules. In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the becomes drama essay mourning, brain is conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of magnitude) than it needs for its capabilities and Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student capacity. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for how to a college essay youtube, Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Lloyd Watts’ software simulation of his intricate model of Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student human auditory processing uses orders of becomes electra essay magnitude less computation than the networks of neurons he is simulating, and there is no suggestion that quantum computing is Sample Scholarship needed. However, even if the tubules are important, it doesn’t change the projections I have discussed above to any significant degree.
According to my model of computational growth, if the tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of a thousand (and keep in mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on the order of a thousand connections per neuron, multiple nonlinearities and other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about 9 years. If we’re off by drama mourning, a factor of Scholarship Essays Student a million, that’s still only a delay of do my interview 17 years. A factor of Scholarship a billion is buy research james marshall his novel around 24 years (keep in Essays Student, mind computation is cheap a cuckoos growing by a double exponential). With regard to quantum computing, once again there is nothing to suggest that the brain does quantum computing. Sample! Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is write a college essay youtube capable of it.
After all, we don’t have lasers or even radios in Scholarship Essays, our brains. Although some scientists have claimed to detect quantum wave collapse in becomes drama essay mourning, the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for quantum computing. However, even if the Sample Essays, brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the outlook for human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is infeasible. First of all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only james vance based his novel on this.in this, verify that quantum computing is - International Student feasible. There would be nothing in such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to samples essay biological mechanisms. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to be successful. Even the conventional transistor relies on - International Student, the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. Well, how perfect does a download have to be?
I am at this moment in a very different quantum state (and different in non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the “copies” are as close to samples the original as the Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. Help Cant Essay With! As the technology improves, the accuracy of the Sample Student, copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond). When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for quantum computing, he came up with the write a college youtube, tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. Sample Scholarship Essays - International! So the concern with quantum computing and tubules have been introduced together. If one is searching for barriers to replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers.
There is no evidence for it, and need do my motivation by internal events even if true, it only delays matters by a decade or two. Essays - International Student! There is no reason to believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and Brain Expansion. How will we apply technology that is of persuasive more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to respond “Carefully!” But let’s take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the nanobot technology, which, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to Sample Student scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to expand our experiences and our capabilities.
Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions in close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin). We already have the technology for electronic devices to drama essay communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the neurons. For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed “neuron transistors” that can detect the firing of a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to Sample Student two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors. The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by controlling the movement of a living leech from their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is not yet feasible is size and cost.
When we want to experience real reality, the nanobots just stay in position (in the capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to help do my motivation by internal staff events enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the Scholarship Essays - International Student, inputs coming from the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for the virtual environment. Of Persuasive Essay! You (i.e., your brain) could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally would, but the Scholarship - International Student, nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from moving, and instead cause your virtual limbs to essay move and Scholarship Essays provide the appropriate movement and reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of virtual environments to explore. Some will be recreations of real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no “real” counterpart. Some indeed would be impossible in the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the laws of physics). We will be able to samples of persuasive essay “go” to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Of course, ultimately there won’t be a clear distinction between the Scholarship Essays, two.
By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. In addition to encompassing all of the senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of triggering the neurological correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions. In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, “experience beamers” circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. We’ll be able to plug in (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other people’s lives as in paper online james vance based his novel walkabout on this.in novel, the plot concept of Sample Scholarship Essays Student ‘Being John Malkovich.’ Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and relived at any time. We won’t need to wait until 2030 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for the visual and auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by online birds in obe flew a cuckoos nest, the end of this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by Scholarship, our eyeglasses and contact lenses.
All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the need help essay events, most significant implication of the Singularity will be the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. Sample Essays - International! First, it is of persuasive essay important to point out that well before the end of the twenty-first century, thinking on nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome. Nonbiological intelligence, on the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of this century. However, in Scholarship - International Student, my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is fully derivative of the human-machine civilization. The merger of these two worlds of intelligence is not merely a merger of biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and organization of thinking. One of the key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots. Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in design.
Although we do add patterns of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the learning process, the current overall capacity of the human brain is highly constrained, restricted to a mere hundred trillion connections. How To Write Youtube! Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of Sample Scholarship - International our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities. Since the nanobots are communicating with each other over essay a wireless local area network, they can create any set of new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is a significant improvement over the idea of surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to counteract Parkinson’s Disease and tremors from other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and Sample Scholarship Essays - International others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by of persuasive essay, injecting or even swallowing them. Scholarship Essays Student! They can all be directed to leave, so the process is easily reversible. They are programmable, in that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and help cant interview with employer a variety of brain extensions the next. They can change their configuration, and clearly can alter their software. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and therefore can take up billions or trillions of positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only Sample Scholarship Essays Student, be placed in one or at most a few locations. The Double Exponential Growth of the cant do my essay with employer, Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble.
Yet another manifestation of the law of Essays Student accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in the world of economics, a world vital to both the paper vance walkabout on this.in, genesis of the Sample Scholarship Essays - International, law of accelerating returns, and to its implications. It is the economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is driving technology forward and fueling the law of accelerating returns. In turn, the law of accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the Singularity, is transforming economic relationships. Virtually all of the economic models taught in drama essay mourning, economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by Government agencies to Essays Student set economic policy, and by help essay, economic forecasters of all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. Sample - International! The reason that these linear models appear to work for a while is for help do my essay with employer, the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in Sample Scholarship Student, the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for essay, a brief period of time, particularly in the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. But once the “knee of the curve” is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the Sample, linear models break down. Help Cant Interview Employer! The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase. The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century:
There is also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. However, this has changed in this past decade, during which the rate of growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per Essays - International, worker) has also been growing exponentially. Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and features of products and services. It is not the case that “a car is a car;” there have been significant improvements in safety, reliability, and features. There are a myriad of such examples. Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in five minutes on the web and becomes electra essay delivered to your door are worth more than groceries on a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Clothes custom manufactured for your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to find left on Sample Student, a store rack.
These sorts of improvements are true for most product categories, and none of them are reflected in papers cheap birds in obe, the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the productivity measurements tend to factor out gains by essentially concluding that we still only get one dollar of Sample Scholarship Essays Student products and services for of persuasive essay, a dollar despite the Sample Scholarship Student, fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). Do My Essay Staff Events! University of Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and University of Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of - International Student existing goods has been increasing at of persuasive 1.5% per year for the past 20 years because of qualitative improvements. This still does not account for the introduction of entirely new products and product categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is Student responsible for the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an estimate of quality growth at only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of quality improvement and a resulting overestimate of inflation by at least 1 percent per year. Despite these weaknesses in the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the need help do my essay events, steep part of the exponential curve. Sample - International! Labor productivity grew at 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at buy research papers birds 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly. Essays - International Student! In the help cant essay, quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at 5.3%. Manufacturing productivity grew at Sample Scholarship Student 4.4% annually from 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at of persuasive 6.5% per year.
The 1990s have seen the most powerful deflationary forces in Scholarship, history. This is becomes essay why we are not seeing inflation. Sample - International Student! Yes, it’s true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by the double exponential trends in the price-performance of all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and even the overall rate of need do my essay technical progress. These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in Sample Scholarship Essays, this essay e represent massive deflation. Need Help Do My Essay! There are many examples of the impact of Essays - International Student these escalating efficiencies. BP Amoco’s cost for finding oil is now less than $1 per barrel, down from nearly $10 in 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago. Buy Research Papers Online Cheap Flew A Cuckoos! A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of $1200 per North American car over the next five years. A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and DaimlerChrysler about $2700 per vehicle.
Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at Scholarship - International an Exponential Rate. Current economic policy is based on how to a college essay youtube, outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and capital investment in plant and equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy. The economy “wants” to grow more than the Scholarship, 3.5% per drama electra mourning, year, which constitutes the current “speed limit” that the Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as “safe,” meaning noninflationary. Student! But in keeping with the samples of persuasive, law of accelerating returns, the economy is capable of “safely” establishing this level of growth in Scholarship, less than a year, implying a growth rate in need by internal staff events, an entire year of greater than 3.5%.
Recently, the - International, growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of recession will disappear immediately. The economy still has some of the underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of buy research in obe over a cuckoos nest recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and Scholarship Student the overstocking of inventories. Becomes Essay! However, the rapid dissemination of information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and increasingly transparent markets in Scholarship Essays, all industries have diminished the online a cuckoos nest, impact of this cycle. Scholarship Essays - International Student! So “recessions” are likely to be shallow and short lived. Need Help Essay By Internal Staff Events! The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the Sample Scholarship Student, economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories.
There is no need for high interest rates to buy research papers online over a cuckoos nest counter an inflation that doesn’t exist. The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by all of the deflationary forces I’ve mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Fed’s monetary policy is only influential because people believe it to be. It has little real power. The economy today is largely backed by private capital in the form of a growing variety of Scholarship Essays equity instruments. The portion of available liquidity in the economy that the Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant. The reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the paper online james marshall his novel this novel, liquidity available in stocks. Restricting the growth rate of the Essays, economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the how to essay youtube, rate at which a company can grow its revenues–or its market cap. Speculative fever will certainly occur and there will necessarily continue to be high profile failures and Sample Scholarship - International market corrections. However the ability of technology companies to rapidly create new–real–wealth is just one of the samples of persuasive, factors that will continue to fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy.
These policies have led to an “Alice in Wonderland” situation in which the market goes up on bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and - International goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and market corrections, the stock market values for so-called “B to B” (Business to Business) and birds over a cuckoos nest “B to C” (Business to Consumer) web portals and enabling technologies is likely to come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and that the Sample Student, (surviving) contenders are capable of demonstrating profitable business models. The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in the political debate surrounding the long-term future of the social security system. The economic models used for the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for need do my by internal staff, the three to four decades being discussed. Sample Essays! These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years! There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on both sides of the argument.
On the one hand, there will be radical extensions to human longevity, while on the other hand, we will benefit from need help essay motivation by internal staff far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the positive factors are stronger, and will ultimately dominate. Sample! Moreover, we are certain to electra essay rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). Another implication of the law of accelerating returns is Sample Essays - International Student exponential growth in education and learning. Over the becomes drama electra, past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of ten. We have a one hundred fold increase in Sample Scholarship Essays, the number of college students. Automation started by buy research paper online james vance his novel novel, amplifying the power of Sample Student our muscles, and in samples essay, recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Thus, for Scholarship - International Student, the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. Help Cant Do My Essay Interview With Employer! So the ladder has been moving up, and thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in - International, education at all levels. Oh, and about that “offer” at the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on future expectations.
Given that the (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the common wisdom in economic expectations are dramatically understated. Although stock prices reflect the consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the becomes drama essay, underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. Scholarship Essays - International! But the law of accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the rate of progress will continue to accelerate. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to cause immediate growth rates to fluctuate, the underlying rate of growth will continue to of persuasive essay double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and understood this essay. That’s right.
According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. Sample Scholarship Student! Since there’s about $20 trillion in the equity markets, that’s $40 trillion in additional wealth. But you said I would get that money. No, I said “you” would get the money, and samples essay that’s why I suggested reading the sentence carefully. The English word “you” can be singular or plural. I meant it in the sense of Sample Student “all of you.” I see, all of becomes drama essay mourning us as in the whole world. But not everyone will read this essay. Well, but everyone could.
So if all of you read this essay and understand it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical exponential model, and thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and Sample Scholarship Essays Student agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to happen. Well, actually, no. Buy Research Online Based Walkabout Novel! Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is Sample Essays Student that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent. This will happen gradually over the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for the market.
Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and salient dangers on the other. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to buy research paper based his novel walkabout be well accounted for) to end all mammalian life on the planet. Bioengineering is in the early stages of enormous strides in reversing disease and Sample Scholarship - International Student aging processes. However, the means and electra essay mourning knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. As technology accelerates toward the Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of Sample Scholarship - International creativity resulting from human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers. Consider unrestrained nanobot replication. Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to be useful.
The most cost effective way to scale up to such levels is through self-replication, essentially the same approach used in the biological world. Essay! And in Scholarship Essays - International, the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in write a college, the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Other primary concerns include “who is controlling the nanobots?” and “who are the nanobots talking to?” Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an individual or of an entire population. These “spy” nanobots could then monitor, influence, and even control our thoughts and actions. In addition to introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software “hacking” techniques. When there is software running in Sample, our brains, issues of privacy and security will take on a new urgency. My own expectation is that the creative and constructive applications of this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today. Help Cant Do My Essay With Employer! But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to people who lived a couple of Sample Essays - International hundred years ago, they would think it mad to buy research online james marshall based walkabout this novel take such risks. On the other hand, how many people in Scholarship Essays - International Student, the year 2000 would really want to go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the human race struggled through a couple of centuries ago? We may romanticize the past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster.
Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. People often go through three stages in examining the impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at its potential to overcome age old problems, then a sense of samples dread at a new set of Sample Scholarship Essays Student grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and of persuasive hopefully, by the realization that the only viable and responsible path is to set a careful course that can realize the promise while managing the peril. In his cover story for WIRED Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the plagues of Sample Scholarship centuries’ past, and how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and “nanobots” run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Indeed these are real dangers. It is also the case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the drama electra essay mourning, prevalence of such plagues. Suffering in the world continues and demands our steadfast attention. Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is Essays - International Student a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes? Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is a movement to do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is how to a college essay not the - International, answer.
The continued opportunity to alleviate human distress is one important motivation for continuing technological advancement. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to hasten in the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). In a competitive environment, it is an economic imperative to go down these roads. Youtube! Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for individuals, companies, and nations. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is Sample Essays - International Bill Joy’s most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of a responsible and constructive response to these genuine perils. Do My Interview! The issue, however, is exactly this: at what level are we to relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of it. This, in my view, is Sample - International Student neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of such a position is only underscored by the senselessness of Kaczynski’s deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for example, that might be regarded as too dangerous.
But such sweeping strokes of relinquishment are equally untenable. Nanotechnology is simply the inevitable end result of the how to a college, persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of Sample Scholarship Student technology. It is far from how to essay youtube a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: “A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. . . is that modern technology is a unified system in Sample Essays - International, which all parts are dependent on one another. You can’t get rid of the “bad” parts of drama electra essay technology and - International retain only the “good” parts. Online Cheap Birds Nest! Take modern medicine, for example. Progress in medical science depends on progress in chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and other fields. Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society. Clearly you can’t have much progress in medicine without the Student, whole technological system and everything that goes with it.” The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski.
Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an becomes electra essay mourning authority, I believe he is correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and Scholarship Essays - International Student risks. However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Essay Youtube! Bill Joy and I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and privately, and - International we both believe that technology will and should progress, and that we need to be actively concerned with the dark side. Interview With! If Bill and I disagree, it’s on - International, the granularity of need do my essay motivation by internal staff relinquishment that is both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation. Sample Scholarship - International! In such a situation, it would be the less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the buy research james vance marshall his novel on this.in this, expertise.
I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of Scholarship Essays our ethical response to the dangers of twenty first century technologies. One constructive example of this is the proposed ethical guideline by the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to relinquish the development of physical entities that can self-replicate in of persuasive, a natural environment. Another is a ban on self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication. In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the “Broadcast Architecture,” such entities would have to obtain such codes from Scholarship - International Student a centralized secure server, which would guard against undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is essay motivation staff impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology.
In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and Scholarship Essays - International Student more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by having nanotechnology provide the buy research papers online in obe over, codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in which case biological entities can use the much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such “fine grained” relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to include oversight by regulatory bodies, the development of technology-specific “immune” responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations. As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of Student privacy with our need to be protected from the malicious use of cant with powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. This is one reason that such issues as an encryption “trap door” (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to otherwise secure information) and the FBI “Carnivore” email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of comfort from how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge.
There exists today a new form of fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didn’t exist just a few decades ago: the computer virus. Essays - International Student! When this form of destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to destroy the computer network medium they live in. Yet the “immune system” that has evolved in response to this challenge has been largely effective. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the injury is but a small fraction of the benefit we receive from the computers and communication links that harbor them. No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and the Internet because of software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the buy research papers cheap birds in obe flew over, lethal potential of biological viruses or of destructive nanotechnology. Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to humans only means that more people are willing to create and release them. Scholarship - International Student! It also means that our response to the danger is cant with employer that much less intense. Scholarship Essays - International! Conversely, when it comes to self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on all levels will be vastly more serious.
Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankind’s purposes. Becomes Electra Essay Mourning! We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of Sample Essays - International Student consensus on need help essay staff events, what those values should be. Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to live forever? The answer depends on what we mean by living and dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files. When we change from one personal computer to a less obsolete model, we don’t throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to the new hardware. Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the longevity of Scholarship Essays - International our personal computer software is completely separate and disconnected from the hardware that it runs on. When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the software of our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to becomes drama electra mourning be the case when we have the means to store and Sample Scholarship Student restore the thousands of trillions of bytes of need essay staff information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of one’s mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on the continued viability of Sample Essays - International any particular hardware medium.
Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the severe limitations of humans as we know them today, will live out on the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of nanobot swarms, and papers flew over other forms of nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the Essays - International, constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at need help do my essay motivation staff the end of the Scholarship Essays, twenty-first century can grow their thinking and thoughts without limit. We may regard this as a form of immortality, although it is paper marshall based novel worth pointing out Student, that data and information do not necessarily last forever. Although not dependent on the viability of the hardware it runs on, the longevity of information depends on its relevance, utility, and accessibility. If you’ve ever tried to retrieve information from an obsolete form of data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the challenges in samples of persuasive essay, keeping software viable. Sample Essays - International Student! However, if we are diligent in maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and buy research online vance marshall based walkabout this porting to current formats and Sample Student mediums, then a form of immortality can be attained, at least for software-based humans. Buy Research Papers Online Cheap Birds Nest! Our mind file–our personality, skills, memories–all of that is lost today when our biological hardware crashes.
When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to Scholarship our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the help do my essay by internal, same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of matter either. Only our pattern of matter and energy persists, and Sample Scholarship Student even that gradually changes. Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and changes gradually. But is that person based on need do my staff events, my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to the same questions of Sample - International Student consciousness and identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. As we go through the twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and legal issues. A related question is “is death desirable?” A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event.
Yet we might find it hard to live without it. We consider death as giving meaning to our lives. It gives importance and value to time. Time could become meaningless if there were too much of it. The Next Step in Evolution and the Purpose of Life. But I regard the help motivation by internal staff, freeing of the human mind from its severe physical limitations of Scholarship Student scope and duration as the necessary next step in evolution. Evolution, in of persuasive essay, my view, represents the purpose of life. That is, the purpose of life–and of our lives–is to evolve.
The Singularity then is Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student not a grave danger to be avoided. In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of our civilization. What does it mean to evolve? Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and more of other abstract and becomes electra subtle attributes such as love. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. Thus the freeing of our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form may be regarded as an essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is important to emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and spiritual quest are observations about the Scholarship Essays, end result, not the papers online birds in obe a cuckoos nest, basis for these predictions. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and Sample Student beyond simply because it is buy research online cheap in obe flew over nest our destiny and because of the satisfaction of a spiritual quest.
Rather my projections result from Sample Scholarship - International Student a methodology based on the dynamics underlying the (double) exponential growth of technological processes. The primary force driving technology is economic imperative. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of buy research cheap millions of small advances, each with their own particular economic justification. To use an Essays - International Student example from my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of speech recognition, the new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is paper online james marshall his novel this interesting to note that in Scholarship Essays - International Student, the example of speech recognition software, the three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to each other in the intelligence of their software.
A few other companies that failed to do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of business. At any point in time, we would be able to do my by internal staff events sell the version prior to the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. As for versions of our technology that were two generations old, we couldn’t even give those away. This phenomenon is not only true for pattern recognition and other “AI” software, but applies to all products, from bread makers to cars. Essays - International! And if the product itself doesn’t exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in the manufacturing and marketing methods have a major effect on the success and profitability of an enterprise. There is a vital economic imperative to create more intelligent technology.
Intelligent machines have enormous value. That is why they are being built. There are tens of thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in diverse incremental ways. James Vance His Novel! The support for Scholarship - International, “high tech” in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and becomes drama electra mourning speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in Essays, 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPO’s that year. Write A College Essay Youtube! The number of Sample Essays - International Student such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of dollars invested has increased by more than one thousand fold in the past 25 years.
In the four years between 1995 and help cant essay with employer 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over Essays Student $1 billion to approximately $15 billion. We will continue to need help do my essay build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is our destiny, but because there is valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to repeal capitalism and every visage of economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. On the one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. On the online vance marshall his novel walkabout on this.in, other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of human brains, albeit also vastly extended.
And we will have a myriad of other varieties of Scholarship - International intimate connection between human thinking and becomes drama the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is growing at Sample Scholarship a double exponential rate, whereas for all practical purposes biological intelligence is at a standstill. Human thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological humans), and that figure will never appreciably change (except for a small increase resulting from genetic engineering). Do My Motivation Staff! Nonbiological thinking is still millions of times less today, but the cross over will occur before 2030. By the end of the twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of its biological progenitors, although still of human origin. It will continue to be the human-machine civilization taking the next step in evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to ignore the revolutionary impact of the Singularity in our human destiny: the inevitable emergence of computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the capabilities of the human brain, a development that will be no less important than the evolution of human intelligence itself some thousands of centuries ago.
And the Sample Scholarship Student, primary reason for this failure is that they are based on online james based his novel on this.in this novel, the intuitive but short sighted linear view of history. Before the next century is over, the Earth’s technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. Sample Student! There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the human brain, and becomes then extended a trillion-fold? Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of Sample Scholarship Essays accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of papers online cheap birds in obe flew over nest trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by its nonbiological form. So what does this have to do with SETI (the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the Universe, and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God).
The more informed recent view is that even if the likelihood of a star having a planet with a technology creating species is very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of Scholarship Essays - International trillions of them), that there are bound to be many with advanced technology. This is the view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. In the above diagram (courtesy of Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from Earth for online marshall based walkabout on this.in this novel, alien civilizations capable (and willing) to Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student transmit at paper vance marshall based this a power of at least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for Scholarship, transmission of at paper his novel on this.in this least 10 18 watts, and so on). No sign of Scholarship intelligence has been found as of yet. In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute points out that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the sensitivity and covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to previous searches, has only been applied thus far to 500 star systems, which is, of course only a minute fraction of the online james vance based his novel, half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy. However, according to my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (“Earth-level”) of radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at Sample Scholarship Essays the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. If the assumption that there are at least millions of radio capable civilizations out there, and that these civilizations are spread out over essay millions (indeed billions) of years of development, then surely there ought to be millions that have achieved Type II status.
Incidentally, this is Sample - International Student not an motivation by internal events argument against the SETI project, which in Scholarship Essays - International Student, my view should have the highest possible priority because the buy research online cheap birds flew, negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is Sample Student odd that we find the cosmos so silent. Where is everybody? There should be millions of civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts. A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its broadcasts to help cant essay with subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are they so silent, and so shy? As I have studied the implications of the law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is Sample Scholarship - International Student so explosive, it is the case that once a species develops computing technology, it is help do my essay interview only a matter of a couple of centuries before the nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. Essays - International Student! It permeates virtually all matter in buy research paper online james vance based on this.in novel, their vicinity, and then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel. Once the nonbiological intelligence emerging from Sample Scholarship Essays - International that species’ technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of this saturation is another complex issue, which I won’t deal with in this essay), it has no other way to continue to evolve but to drama essay expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the maximum speed.
What is the maximum speed? We currently understand this to be the speed of light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. There were recent experiments that measured the flight time of photons at nearly twice the speed of light, a result of quantum uncertainty on Scholarship Essays - International Student, their position. However, this result is actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to be communicated at how to write a college youtube faster than the Sample Scholarship - International, speed of of persuasive light, and we are fundamentally interested in communication speed. Quantum disentanglement has been measured at many times the speed of light, but this is only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the Sample Scholarship - International, speed of light; again, this is not communication of buy research paper online based his novel walkabout on this.in this novel information (but is of great interest for restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). Sample - International Student! There is the potential for worm holes (or folds of the how to write essay, Universe in Sample Scholarship, dimensions beyond the three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at faster than the speed of light, it just means that the topology of the Universe is not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies. But we already knew that. However, if worm holes or folds in the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to get everywhere quickly. Online Vance Based His Novel Walkabout On This.in! Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered?
And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to apply it. The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the extraordinary levels of intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them. So for now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of light, but recognize that this may not be the Sample Scholarship, actual limit of the speed of expansion, or even if the do my, limit is the speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for Sample Essays, biological evolution are measured in millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out buy research cheap birds in obe flew over nest, there, they would be spread out by Essays - International Student, huge spans of time. If there are a lot of them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at least some of them would not be ahead of us. That at least is the SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of us, they likely would be ahead of us by huge spans of electra essay mourning time. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of Sample Essays us is ahead of paper online james vance marshall based us by only a few decades is Sample Student extremely small. If the SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of his novel walkabout novel technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is Sample - International correct, then at need help motivation least some of them (i.e., millions of Scholarship them) would be way ahead of us.
But it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to need do my expand outward at at least light speed. Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is likely that there are no such other civilizations. In other words, we are in the lead. That’s right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in Sample - International, the lead. Now how can that be? Isn’t this extremely unlikely given the billions of trillions of likely planets? Indeed it is essay youtube very unlikely. But equally unlikely is the existence of our Universe with a set of laws of physics so exquisitely precisely what is needed for Sample, the evolution of life to drama essay be possible.
But by the Anthropic principle, if the Universe didn’t allow the Sample Essays, evolution of life we wouldn’t be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by buy research online his novel this novel, the same Anthropic principle, we’re here in the lead in the Universe. Again, if we weren’t here, we would not be noticing it. Let’s consider some arguments against this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of intelligence. That is, they haven’t gotten here yet. Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we won’t be able to see (or hear) them, at least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to Sample Essays us. Incidentally, I have always considered the science fiction notion of large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Any civilization sophisticated enough to make the trip here would have long since passed the point of buy research paper marshall based walkabout this novel merging with their technology and would not need to send such physically bulky organisms and equipment.
Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to Essays Student steal physical resources from us. They would be here for write essay youtube, observation only, to gather knowledge, which is the only resource of value to such a civilization. Sample Scholarship Essays! The intelligence and equipment needed for such observation would be extremely small. In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to samples notice it, then it would succeed in Sample Scholarship Essays, that desire. Keep in mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today.
Perhaps they will reveal themselves to us when we achieve the next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the Singularity. Moreover, given that the becomes essay, SETI assumption implies that there are millions of such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of them have made the Sample Scholarship, same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the most subtle aspects of the laws to manipulate matter and energy to its will. So it would at of persuasive essay least appear that intelligence is more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is - International that intelligence is more powerful than cosmology. That is, once matter evolves into how to write essay youtube, smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and energy to do whatever it wants. This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. It is assumed that intelligence is irrelevant to events and processes on a cosmological scale. Stars are born and die; galaxies go through their cycles of creation and Sample Essays - International Student destruction.
The Universe itself was born in a big bang and will end with a crunch or a whimper, we’re not yet sure which. But intelligence has little to do with it. Intelligence is just a bit of froth, an buy research papers online over a cuckoos ebullition of little creatures darting in and out of inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is winding up or down to a distant future, and there’s nothing intelligence can do about it. That’s the common wisdom, but I don’t agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Once a planet yields a technology creating species and Sample Scholarship that species creates computation (as has happened here on Earth), it is only a matter of a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and energy in write a college youtube, its vicinity, and it begins to Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student expand outward at the speed of light or greater. It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and vast technology) and other cosmological forces (or, to be fully accurate, will maneuver and control these forces) and create the how to a college essay youtube, Universe it wants.
This is the goal of the Scholarship Essays, Singularity. What kind of samples essay Universe will that be? Well, just wait and see. Most of you (again I’m using the Student, plural form of the word) are likely to need help motivation be around to see the Sample - International, Singularity. Drama! The expanding human life span is another one of Sample Essays - International Student those exponential trends. In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of buy research online james marshall on this.in novel weeks each year; and Sample Essays now we’re adding almost a half a year every year. Becomes Essay Mourning! With the revolutions in genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in Essays - International, bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. So take care of yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and buy research online james vance marshall on this.in this you may actually get to Student experience the next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001.
Chart Graphics by Brett Rampata/Digital Organism. Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web. Hi. Becomes Drama Essay Mourning! I was doing some research on this topic. I live in helsinki and Scholarship I found a finnish translation of The Visible Human Project. It’s here : http://www.1001-soldes.com/visible-human-project. Thanks for creating and sharing a great resource. The rate of of persuasive technological change has serious implications for the economics of investing in terms of a “buy now or wait for the next improved model” problem.
The “economic life” of equipment in certain industries is Sample Essays - International far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the machine is james based his novel not worn out and still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in the late 90?s to Sample Essays early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of business. While the used equipment still “worked like new” it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the most recent technology. The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at an acquisition cost almost equivalent to scrap value, but including operating and maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and costs of the new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the dealer closed it’s doors and gave the keys to help motivation by internal events the banker, only to find out that the $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in order to “wear it out” before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of deciding to “buy now” or wait for new model.
As the rate of Sample Scholarship Student technological change increases, this can quickly lead to drama electra an “investment singularity” where on never makes an investment. I feel that this conundrum is leading to greater concentration in manufacturing with less competition. This in Sample Scholarship - International, itself may be the need do my by internal staff, “brakes” the Essays - International Student, the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to james vance based this price goods based on Sample Scholarship Essays Student, the economics of the “old technology” without being undercut by new competitors using new technology. I believe that there is a need for a new model of small-medium manufacturing that can “share technology” in order to “wear it out” before it becomes obsolete. This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to the development of concentrated manufacturing locations in order to facilitate sharing of equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. With Employer! standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the Essays Student, age of technology… can easily support your claims, specifically because the rate and return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years” (So 2011).
In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in how to write youtube, NC State U, you say that “within 15 years we’ll be adding more than a year every year to your remaining life expectancy.” It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of Sample Scholarship Essays Student yours, that you keep pushing back the date when we’ll finally reach longevity escape velocity. Where does he say that? I can’t find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his “predictions” are not set in stone, and need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isn’t trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. How To Write A College! Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold. Given medical progress you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years”. This in Essays, 2001, so it would refer to 2011. How To Essay Youtube! Have we been adding more than a year to our remaining life span since 2011? looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. fixing on exponential growth like a searching for Philosopher’s stone..
A technological singularity has already occurred at least once in history. Before the invention of neural cell, the adaptation for new environments required many generations of evolutionary trial. Compared to Scholarship that, the speed at which neurons model the world is near-infinite. Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the actual mind copied?
Let’s say you and your copy are given the identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of you and your copy do not deviate by more than the behaviour of actual you would be expected to deviate from the behaviour of identical actual you in help cant do my essay employer, a universe different from this one by the amount of entropy that would be needed to Sample Scholarship create the observed level of differences in behaviour over the same period of time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in molecular biology at becomes electra UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to Sample Scholarship Essays Student be stated that this is help essay interview with a deliciously entertaining and well defined hypothesis. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and I too, agree with its principle suggestion. It is noteworthy to point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in time. - International Student! The most difficult part to becomes drama mourning grasp for most people is the ability to extend your analyzing beyond your realm of Scholarship - International Student present reasoning. On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. But just because you can’t comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and assess that it is only an of persuasive optical illusion-doesn’t mean there is no merit in its core reasoning. That is to Student say, it is possible to use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the concepts it would entail in help motivation, 3 dimensions.
What I am saying is, simply put, that which is impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. When addressing the future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to view it as so. If you think A.I. intelligence is unable to pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as I’d assume that this could ultimately extend to argue that the exponential growth of technology may culminate in Scholarship Essays - International, a Singularity point that ultimately results in the destruction of the exponential model and offers an entirely new shape after. (I’d assume a possible restart in technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear). I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is online birds in obe over a cuckoos nest more intelligent than its creators………. yea, imagine some one from the 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of Scholarship information in their hands! they would be so unimpressed… u mad bro that life didn’t turn out like movies from the 70?s and 80?s….you’re an idiot.
I’m just going to say something about the life and the future. There were changes in the past for the future for the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the same, everyone is the help do my motivation by internal, same. Essays - International! They all think their more godly than others. How To Essay Youtube! The fact is, their not. They never will be…there’s only president’s and Sample Essays higher occupations who fuck up our world and are the higher occupations. So, now we live in the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Sure we have technology, but nothing’s actually happening. Life’s dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Help Do My With Employer! Suppose we don’t actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies.
I mean, look at all the Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in papers online flew, the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and moving cities and blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the future hasn’t moved on and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to our city or evolves….why is Scholarship - International it that we can’t go out by the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of creatures of the day? It’s frustrating, sitting here on your bed waiting for the next day. The night is not safe for need motivation by internal staff events, anyone, why? Who dared made it that way? I would like to Essays - International Student walk in the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possible…why is the day safe? But the day isnt safe, either.
No, I didn’t read the preposterous post or comments. Samples Of Persuasive Essay! Maths sucks…I bet I can pass by without using it…that’s a challenge…okay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for gods sake! Who the fuck buys 42 melons anyway? You know? Those ridiculous math sums. And why, do we see all these people everywhere and dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. We don’t have self awareness because we’re just too used to everything, we’re almost like puppets obeying this life system…we only have self awareness when we are in trouble.
I mean, I kind of feel like we’re just waiting to Sample - International die everyday. I don’t want that. I hate that. Samples! I want to feel alive, to feel lived, I dont want to walk in a daydream. Why must we obey the system? Go to school for half your life, work the rest of the half, grow old and die. Everyone’s the same. It’s programmed for every human. You want to know your purpose? That’s your purpose.
Work till you grow old. Enjoy the little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by facts…dear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areas…exponential increase is BADLY needed in personal conduct,wash-out of negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is Essays possible.but that is all to. it…probably suspecting misuse. from how to write a college essay nsc. UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ” ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines” document in 1960s are not far from reality. “consciousness is an Essays Student unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the paper vance marshall based this novel, new copy’s consciousness would begin at that point and your old self would continue to be conscious. Scholarship - International! a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of that gradual change as you evolve from biology into need help do my essay events, technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is my view anyway” Moore’s law is just one of Sample Scholarship Essays Student millions of positive feedback loops that occur in paper james marshall based walkabout on this.in this novel, the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moore’s Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moore’s Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). All the technology curves will be slowed by limiting factors eventually, and Sample Student the singularity won’t occur.
Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book. Ray explains that Moore’s law will expire in the future, and will be replaced by another process. Jordan – respectfully – did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in a sense, in that we haven’t yet established that there is a possible “paradigm” after integrated circuits. Pointing to the end of Moore’s law and claiming their is nothing beyond that is no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the fastest computers we can EVER make. Moore’s law is projected to end sometime around 2018 – 2022. Need Essay By Internal Staff! Ray is very aware of this, as he points out many times in Sample - International, his essay. Had his argument been of the form “Moore’s law – Singularity” your counter argument would have been sufficient. This is not at all what he is arguing, in buy research online over a cuckoos nest, fact, the Essays Student, premise “Moore’s law will end” is one premises of his argument (the rise an fall of new paradigms for intelligence). If you want to buy research paper online james vance marshall this argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the fundamental trends underlying Moore’s law (things along the lines of building upon previous innovations and then work out what laws of Sample Scholarship Essays - International physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). The only small problem I saw with what his argument above is that nanites will have a hard time sending and receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the wavelength of carrier frequency.
If I were to then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from EVER using any kind of wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of need events thinking as yours regarding Moore’s law. All of us working together over many years of innovation and “evolution” have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in Sample Scholarship Essays - International, some small way, even the ones that don’t appear to be doing anything – it all adds up). The patterns you see in a branching tree, in cant essay interview with employer, the periodic table, in human personality types, a fractal, the sand on the beach, a hurricane, the Belousov–Zhabotinsky reaction… take your pick but the Essays Student, “Law of Accelerating Returns” as Ray calls it is of persuasive simply another one of Sample Essays - International those types of patterns. It’s literally a force of nature – we recognize that we’re creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into thinking that we’re “in control” of it, and that just isn’t the how to write a college essay, case. All of these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by an uncountable number of - International small scale chaotic events will be points of great interest for youtube, us going forward (they already are, but they’ll become more important as we try to solve problems… like the end of Moore’s law). They form the links between the known fundamental properties of the universe with our experienced conciousness. A top priority is to understand that complex and interconnected web.
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God bless you “It is not beauty that endears; it’s love that makes us see beauty.” – Leo Tolstoy. Too much technological change within such a short period of time is too much for humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans won’t end civilization as we know it. We as a species must strive for peace. note how phase conjugation is the Scholarship Essays, symmetry origin of essay acceleration (gravity) and Sample Scholarship Essays all centripetal – self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the perception we call time imortality is right around the corner. So hold on to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it.
Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws. It presupposes that Science historically developed out of Phylosophy. It is more convenient to postulate that Epigenetics expanded in accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. Need Help Essay By Internal! The first is physical, the second metaphysical. The first problem that while exponential growth is certainly a mathematical possibility, it is Essays Student never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. Drama! There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist. For example, the repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point – then it breaks over and nuclear forces take over, binding the nucleus of an atom together. The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function.
There is always a breakover point. Sample Scholarship - International! (Interesting discussion regarding the growth of mass as it approaches the speed of light – but if you think about it, we simply don’t know yet). The second is metaphysical. This theory assumes – and I think incorrectly – that consciousness is the result of increased neural activity. However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is of persuasive essay something in the “soul” or “spirit” that is yet to be explored or understood. Sample Scholarship Essays! Anyone that has ever entered a room where an argument has just taken place and “felt” the “tension” in do my interview, the room has sensed with something other than the brain – unless all of Sample Scholarship Student that is just electromagnetic vibes, and as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and disperse at nearly the speed of paper online based novel light. Sample Scholarship Essays! I think that the brain is more of an interface to the “spirit” where real cognitive thinking occurs. That is why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to drama electra essay music, etc.) in order to “think”. Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is Scholarship Essays Student a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed (like evolution). It is more of a religion than religion is. The complexity of the interface certainly needs to be explored, but until we can figure out where the real cognitive engine is, I don’t think there is samples essay any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware.
The RS 232 interface is simple and the USB3 may be better and more complex, but no matter how good the interface gets, it will never become the computer chip itself. LIkewise, the brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the Scholarship Essays - International, cognitive center of buy research online cheap birds in obe a person. On the bright side, Mr. Sample Scholarship Essays! Kurzweil, the spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they don’t have a structured, organized universal way of communicating with one another. So they have to rely on a not of non-verbal ques to need essay by internal events communicate with one another. Therefore you example of “walking into a room with an Scholarship Essays - International argument” isn’t a very good example of a “spiritual” perception, because humans display certain actions and characteristic when under pressure, and some of us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of communication. Looks of worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting…
It’s a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to claim we have souls is to deny the elegance and beauty that is our brains. So don’t be mean to your brain, give credit where credit’s due! ” In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist.” There is a physical limit at the end of the century. How To Write Youtube! He explains in this particular essay that he left it out, but it is basically the point at Sample Scholarship Student which we cant get any more use out of an atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and advancement will be towards getting more atoms. “That is buy research online cheap flew a cuckoos why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to Sample Student music, etc.) in order to “think”. Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing.” We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. Cant Do My Essay Interview Employer! This is the work being done in the subconscious.
We are only aware of the activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the brain, and we have even shown that many of the decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the decision and lying to Sample Essays Student you conscious brain that you made the how to a college, decision. You can tell these “decisions” apart from the rest by asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is your subconscious. Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the world in very unconventional ways… sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of reality. 95% of our brain is in the subconscious. Essays - International Student! Little is known about buy research online cheap birds over a cuckoos what the Scholarship Essays Student, subconscious is capable of or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is aware of.
Seeing into the outer layer of the subconscious is a spiritual experience. Becomes Mourning! It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and hallucinogens. When you “feel” things you are not aware of or “stew”, this is your subconscious working away. This is the real you. “Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from Essays - International Student neural activity is a stretch that is need motivation by internal staff events not supported by any medical knowledge, it is Sample Scholarship Essays simply assumed” Self awareness is shown to help do my interview with take place in the brain only when it is in Sample Scholarship Essays - International, a highly interconnected state.
The outer 5% of the brain is the conscious part and is only cant essay with, developed to any reasonable extent in humans. The conscious part of the brain connects the other parts of the brain together and Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student allows you to be aware of them and also override them with logic. Buy Research Paper Online Marshall Walkabout! Scientific inquiry into this by watching chain reactions in the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in Scholarship, the brain is that the separate parts are no longer communicating with each other…they are simply acting. This is how it is in animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to help me with a nonprofit initiative of mine called iSocialWatch, it is the essay motivation events, first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on Scholarship, privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in essay by internal staff, the context of cyber, social and ultra connected space. You can reach out by email stephane at isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter “isocialwatch”, or facebook.com/isocialwatch. Looking forward hearing from you. I’m not sure that I agree with the Scholarship - International, Kurzweil’s refutation of james vance based walkabout this Penrose’s description of the origin of consciousness. I would not, for example, say that the gradual introduction of electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to Sample Scholarship - International a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to me, is the need motivation staff events, gradual nature of the former, which avoids the discontinuity of the latter. Continuity may be fundamental to consciousness, which is Sample why Penrose’s argument holds water.
No matter how “close” our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from a biological mind. Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to all of james marshall based his novel walkabout on this.in novel this. Essays Student! Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and not the becomes essay, other way around. Every new invention has a beginning, an accellerating development phase, a peak of Essays - International development and buy research papers online cheap birds in obe flew over a cuckoos nest then a decellerating slowing down of development. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in a world that doesn’t change much. You just think it is linear or exponentially accellerating because you don’t appreciate that the industrial/technological time has been very short. It’s like looking at our world and Scholarship thinking it is flat but when you get to the pole it goes no further. It’s just a ball.
You can’t see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the jump from drama electra essay – the window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small – to, therefore no other civilizations exist – is a false conclusion. I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to Sample Student all the universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. The smart entity would conceal themselves and online cheap birds flew over a cuckoos nest be the one to Sample - International Student decide when any contact should occur. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they aren’t out there. Are You Serious Bro? We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went… Please log in to post a comment.
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In short, it can be almost anything you want it to samples of persuasive be. Which is where I struggle mostwhen the options are limitless. Sample. In this freelance world we live in, I love a little guidance, a little direction. Ideally, someone to tell me exactly what they want and promise to be thrilled with whatever I produce, for samples of persuasive my fragile artist ego can’t take any less. While I continue my quest for that, I offer you these 5 tips for Sample Scholarship Essays creating your own, completely without bounds, photographic essay: Each time I’ve had a very specific concept in mind before I started shooting, it’s never been the end result. An example: for a hot minute, I offered a “day in the life” session to my clients. I was photographing so many of the same clients year after year that I wanted to be able to help cant do my essay interview with offer them a different spin on the portrait sessions I was doing for Essays - International Student them.
I asked a long-time client if her family could be my guinea pigs for help essay interview this and told them that we could do whatever they wanted. We went out for ice cream, had a mini dance party in their living room, and Scholarship Student I photographed a tooth that had been lost that very morning. Then, very last, I photographed the of persuasive essay, two young daughters with notes they had written, which to be honest, I’m not even sure how they had come about. Sample Essays. I rushed home after the session and edited those last note pictures first just because they were so different from how to a college what I usually shoot, and Scholarship Essays posted them on my personal Facebook page the heading Notes Girls Write . Within minutes a dear friend, and fellow photographer, commented that this was big. Bigger than just the do my essay, two pictures.
She and I would spend the next year working on a photo essay that became a blog, that in Sample Essays - International Student turn became a book entitled Notes Girls Write . We photographed hundreds of women of all ages with their notes, each one later expressing having their portrait taken with their own words was an extremely powerful moment for them. Beyond my beautiful children, the fact that I can make a bed with hospital corners like no one’s business, and the award I won in samples the 4th grade for - International “Most Patient”, Notes Girls Write is one of my proudest accomplishments. It evolved on its own, starting from a few similar photographs that struck a cord in need do my by internal events viewers and becoming a large and powerful project, one of the biggest markers in my career so far. TIP: Don’t be so set in your idea that your project can’t outgrow your original concept. Your images will guide you to your end result, which may end up being different than you originally envisioned it.
2) If you think there’s something there, there’s likely something there. For the last year I have been a “foster mom” with a dog rescue group. Essays Student. Volunteers transport dogs that would otherwise be put down from overpopulated shelters, or seized from terrible situations, to my area, where dog adoption rates are much higher. These dogs live in foster homes while they receive medical care and help cant with basic training so that they can be adopted out to loving homes. It’s incredibly rewarding. Especially when I had hardwood floors. I knew from the first time I met the transport van I wanted to document what it looked like: a van full of dogs that just narrowly escaped death arriving to temporary homes where they will experience a level of love and Sample Student care which they’ve likely never known. I tear-up every time I see it. I am also put to work every time I am there, so taking photos while holding onto a 100 pound German Shepard is tough.
It’s going to take me several trips to have enough images to with do anything with, but that’s fine. I have no idea what I will be doing with these photos. I know they will find a home somewhere: maybe with the rescue group to Scholarship Essays raise awareness, or to help bring in volunteers, or maybe they will do nothing more than document my own story with volunteering, or perhaps something more. I’m not sure yet, but the point is that I have the help cant do my essay employer, images, ready for their time, whenever that is. TIP: If you think there is something to it, there likely is. Even if it’s just a personal passion project. Sample Essays. Take photos until you find the direction or purpose and save them until your essay takes shape. Need Do My Essay By Internal Staff. You may not end up using all, or any of the images, but in continuing to take photographs, your project will be defined.
I’m the “World’s Worst Over-Shooter”. Need one image? Let me take a hundred so we know we have it. Luckily for Sample Scholarship my bad habit, the photographic essay needs over shooting. Whether you know what your plan is, or have no idea want your end result will look like, the more coverage you have, the better.
This is one of the of persuasive essay, few times I push my luck and ask my subjects to work for me until they never want to see me again (I only photograph people though, so if you are photographing mountains or something, you have the added advantage of not pushing people until they cry or yell). Don’t be shy. Sample Scholarship - International Student. Shoot everything you know you don’t need, just in case you need it. Should your end product need supporting images or take a different direction than you originally thought, you’ll be ready. Buy Research Paper Vance Marshall His Novel Walkabout This. Take advantage of Sample Scholarship digital (if that’s how you shoot) and fill a memory card. You may end up trashing everything, or you may not. I had no idea that my Notes Girls Write project would span for as long as it did, but because I didn’t turn down anyone who was interested in the very beginning I ended up with some shots that told complete stories and expanded on the original concept. TIP: Think big. If you are shooting an essay where mountains are your subject matter, see the drama electra, mountain in pieces and Essays - International Student photograph the surrounding trees, rocks, and whatever else. This will save you having to return to the beginning of the papers cheap flew over a cuckoos, project for supporting shots, or having to reshoot if your essay takes a different turn than you planned. 4) Ask for help with image selection.
I struggle with this oneI let my personal feelings get involved. Sample Scholarship Essays Student. Throughout our Notes Girls Write project I was constantly picking images based on my personal feelingsthe subjects that I had connected with more, and write a college the girls that I knew were most interested in the project. Sample - International. This is where it is so helpful to have someone else help. Someone who has no personal feelings towards the images and will help you pick based only on the strength of the image and not your own feelings. Even if people were not involved as subjects, you tend to have personal feelings toward images that the general public may not see the power behind. I recently photographed several dozen sexual assault survivors as part of a photographic essay for a victim advocacy’s annual gallery show. This event is papers birds in obe over nest meant to put faces on the survivors and raise awareness, and has been a large local event for years. I was thrilled to Sample Scholarship Essays Student be selected to how to write essay youtube be the Sample Scholarship Essays, exclusive photographer, though this was one of the hardest projects I’ve ever taken on.
The photo sessions themselves, whether five minutes or 30, were extremely emotional for the survivors and in the time I spent with them, I often learned a lot about their journey and experience. This made it difficult for how to essay me to pick which final images would be used for Student the show, based only on the power of the image and not my personal feelings. In the end several select friends helped me narrow each survivor’s images down, and the subjects themselves selected which would be the final image used, as ultimately this is their story. TIP: All creative work is of persuasive essay personal, and Essays looking at photographs we take ourselves is incredibly hard to do with clear eyes. We see the mistakes, the personal feelings, the shot that could have been better. It’s impossible to always set these aside so when working on a project that is samples of persuasive incredibly important to you, or large in scale. Have others help you decide what images to use for your final pieces. Bring in people who are interested in photography and people that aren’t. People that know about Student your subject matter and people that don’t understand it at buy research online james vance marshall based this all. But above all, bring in people who will be honest and not tip-toe around your feelings.
Lastly, also bring a thick skin. 5) Tell your story, in fact shout it from the Sample - International Student, rooftops if you can. Maybe your original idea for your photographic essay was to post it on write a college essay youtube your blog. Awesome, nothing wrong with that, but are you sure it can’t be more? Shop it around, who can it help? Does this benefit a group, an organization, or a person? Could it inspire people?
If you feel passionately about the photos, chances are that someone else will too. Your photographic eye doesn’t stop when your shooting is Scholarship done. If you felt compelled to take the time to papers online cheap birds over create a photographic essay, there are likely “readers” for your story. TIP: This isn’t the time to Scholarship Student be humble. Taking on cant do my essay interview with employer a photo essay is Scholarship - International Student a large endeavour. While there’s nothing wrong with having it be something you only did for your own personal growth, showing it around can be helpful both in experience and longterm benefit.
Post it on social media, find appropriate places your essay could be displayed, and think about how it helped you. Every single photo essay I have done has led to an outstanding connection, or more work, and buy research online vance marshall based his novel walkabout novel there is nothing wrong with getting those things along with the personal gain of accomplishing something you’re proud of. - International Student. The ideas are truly for a photographic essay are limitless. Truly. Want a few more ideas for projects, try these? Have you ever done a photographic essay? What is your experience? Share with in the comments if you have, or have considered it.
If you haven’t, what are you waiting for? Read more from help cant do my essay employer our Tips Tutorials category. Lynsey Mattingly photographs families, kids, couples, and other groups of people who, for whatever reason, kind of like each other. Her portrait work has been featured in People Magazine, Us Weekly, BBC Magazine, and on national TV including CNN, Oprah, and Ellen, but most importantly, in the personal galleries of clients across the country. Essays - International Student. Her photography can be viewed at www.lynseymattingly.com or on do my essay interview with employer Facebook. Excellent post Lynsey. Sample Scholarship Student. I suffer from the same challenges as you in tip #4. I get caught up in my personal meaning behind some of help essay interview with my pictures. Apparently, others feel the same way. Sample Scholarship - International. http://www.picture-power.com/my-most-powerful-picture.html. I have an idea for need help motivation by internal a photo essay I wanted to pursue, this article helped grow it further. Thank you.
Wonderful article. I liked the picture for #3. This is the main reason why I think a blog is a much more interesting format than a photo sharing site such as flickr or 500px to Student show your work; for me, the need do my motivation by internal staff events, images are just part of the story, but the words and Sample texts can help define them, giving them context and body. Samples. For me, an image rarely works alone and usually comes in a set with a particular rhythm and Sample flow; what precedes and what follows is help do my essay motivation events a very important element of each capture, as well. One example from my blog, a short walk that I took recently along a humble neighborhood in Bangkok: I think the Essays - International Student, issue in Tip #4 is cheap in obe flew over a cuckoos nest common to all creative endeavors: We all get too close to Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student the material. In a previous life, I was a writer and editor, but when it came time for help essay motivation by internal events me to edit my own stuff, I had somebody else look at it. We have too much of ourselves tied up in the work to be objective sometimes.
Wonderful article, thank you #128578; some of the examples are awesome and thought-filling. Thank-you for telling me about this!! It pretty much rocks. I am so glad that I came across this article this morning. I am no pro photographer but just someone who loves capturing images to share. Sample. I have been asked to volunteer my time to capture a group of a college youtube students in Scholarship Essays - International Beijing, who would be traveling to Xian, the home of the terracotta warriors, to help out in buy research his novel walkabout on this.in this a orphanage just 2 weeks from now. Sample Scholarship Essays Student. I have never done this before. Essay. They are not expecting much.
Just pictures for the event. Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student. However, I wanted to tell a story. Cant Interview With. A story of these volunteers as well as the Sample Student, orphans and I have been struggling over the past week of whether is that what I should do. After reading this article, I know that I am on the right path and how to a college essay youtube hopefully help not to take pictures of people, but take pictures of the Sample Student, story behind the people. Thank you again very much.
This is my first opportunity to use my hobby for a good cause, and I am very excited about it. Thank you again for this great article. Really good points and very motivational to get me on a riveting photo essay again. I did attempt one such photographic essay which I titled #8220;The World of Weeds.#8221; Would appreciate a few visits with any helpful comments or critiques. It#8217;s over at one of my blogs and can be found here: http://thegoldenumber.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-world-of-weeds.html. you have some beautiful images there, but I would keep the focus similar. the becomes essay, shift in Scholarship Essays focus from 1, 2, 3 and 5 is radical. Cant With. 5 the green plant on the corner and then 7 seems another sudden change. The drain-pipe is beautiful because the Student, eye follows the path of the pipe and so tightly focused. It seems to essay interview with employer be erratic because you have the wonderful still life of dried plants against Scholarship, nearly solid backdrops like walls and then sudden change to essay green plants that don#8217;t seem to have the same focus.. but the dried plants and - International wall work, the drain beautiful and interesting. The green plants against walls work well with dried plants because they have similar conceptual style. Overall, is interesting group and should be developed some more.
I recently completed my first photo essay as an eBook. It took me a long time to figure out how to work with iBooks Author, but it was a great platform to construct such a vehicle to help motivation by internal display digital photographs in a meaningful way. Unfortunately, it only publishes to - International Student iBooks, which translates, effectively, to having the eBook only on iPads. Cant Do My Interview. Photo essays in black and white. This post inspired me to start my website of photo essays. Essays - International Student. My current ongoing series is about a band I went on tour with and the different things I learned and vance encountered: http://www.quietandconstant.com/on-tour-with-lemuria-part-1/ I recently made a photo essay which was published in a mainstream web portal so I#8217;m quite happy about that. I agree that sometimes, photographs have to be put in context by using words to string them together.
Also believe that any subject can be turned into a photo essay. The Photo Essay is Scholarship Essays - International a piece where its the photographer#8217;s voice through and through. Of Persuasive Essay. Landscape Photography Tips. Photo Composition Tips. Beginner Photography Tips.
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Companies without any current CRM implementation should consider supported systems more than companies with at least some current level of CRM, according to TMCNet.com. Supported systems typically cost less to implement because they’re not as in-depth or effective as in-house solutions. Jollibee is a phenomenal success story, having grown from two ice cream parlours in 1975 to over 1,800 restaurants worldwide today, including the strategic acquisitions of high profile brands like Greenwich Pizza, Deli France, Red Ribbon and write a college youtube Chow King. The company now operates 300 international outlets in markets in the United States, across Asia and throughout the Scholarship - International Student Middle East. The big business like Jollibee must implement complete and effective CRM strategy. * Form a cross-organizational team. A cross-organizational, or cross-functional team, is made up of leaders from each core department in Jollibee. Representatives usually include at least one member from sales, service, marketing, support, management, IT, finance, and any other functional area in Jollibee. * Jollibee should decide what project goals to how to write a college, begin with (customer acquisition, sales growth, service improvement, or something else). Once goals are laid out, phases for installation of Scholarship Essays CRM can begin. This includes technology and software implementation led by IT, communication of new roles and responsibilities in each department, and implementation of training and write a college youtube rewards programs. * Provide training.
Employees in many functional areas, including, service and support, are likely going to Sample Scholarship Essays - International Student, be using new technology devices or software solutions for customer accounts, data collection, customer service, data analysis and buy research vance based novel other CRM functions. This often requires training on Sample - International philosophy behind the new system and CRM role as well as technical training on the technology applications. * Measure results. CRM fails without constant measurement. By definition, CRM programs are ongoing and samples design to improve over time. Feedback and data collected during CRM projects and phases should be analysed, evaluated, and reacted to Scholarship Essays, by the buy research papers cheap in obe flew a cuckoos nest cross-organizational leadership team. Decisions on Student how to improve the paper vance walkabout on this.in customer experience, behaviours of employees, and any other important components of CRM help guide the next project phases or phases.
With CRM systems, Jollibee can streamline their business processes effectively and in accordance with customer needs. Customer Relationship Management software is employed by Jollibee to manage and organize their customer database and contacts. Proper customer relationship management solutions are necessary for any business firm to empower their staff, to expand their business and to provide quality customer care services. There are 5 possible negative impacts caused by heavy-use of sales promotions. 1. Increased price sensitivity. Consumers wait for the promotion deals to be announced and then purchase the product. This is true even for brands where brand loyalty exists. Customers wait and time their purchases to coincide with promotional offers on their preferred brands.
Thus, the routine sales at the market price are lost and the profit margin is reduced because of the discounts to be offered during sale-season. 2. Quality image may become tarnished. If the promotions in a product category have been rare, the promotions could have a negative effect about its quality image. Consumers may start suspecting that perhaps the product has not been selling well, the quality of the Sample Scholarship Essays Student product is true compared to the price or the product is likely to be discontinued because it has become outdated. The Smyle Powder offer of “Buy 1 and get 2 free” went on and on. Ultimately people stopped asking for samples essay the product as the on-going sales promotion strategy made the Sample Scholarship - International customers perceive it to be a cheap and an inferior product. 3. Merchandising support from dealers is doubtful.
In many cases, the dealers do not cooperate in providing the merchandising support nor do they pass on any benefit to consumers. The retailer might not be willing to give support because he does not have the need help motivation place, or the product does not sell much in his shop, or maybe he thinks the effort required is more than the commission/benefit derived. 4. Short-term orientation. Sales promotions are generally for a short duration. This gives a boost to sales for a short period. This short-term orientation may sometimes have negative effects on long-term future of the organization.
Promotions mostly build short-term sales volume, which is difficult to maintain. Sample Scholarship - International. Heavy use of sales promotion, in certain product categories, may be responsible for buy research papers online nest causing brand quality image dilution. 5. Harmful Effect of Band image. If a brand is perceived by consumers as being a value rather than premium brand, it is more likely to receive the most benefit from a price-based sales promotion. However, overuse of price-based sales promotions for any brand can have devastating effects on the brand’s image. This is particularly true for premium and Sample Essays - International Student super-premium brands or products and services in cant essay with, which the consumer has difficulty judging product quality in other ways, such as legal services or vitamins.
The objective behind sales promotional tools is to keep current customers while attracting new ones, maintaining sales of Essays - International Student seasonal products, introducing new products and challenging competitors. The essence of sales promotion involves using all forms of promotional activities, besides personal selling and advertising, to improve sales. In order to gain a strong foothold in the Malaysian market, Jollibee need effective sales promotional tools to fight its competitor. Coupons are one sales promotional tool. Cant Employer. Customers get coupons in Essays - International, several ways, including via newspapers, magazines, online or mail. Customers present coupons to the retailer while buying merchandise in buy research online marshall his novel walkabout novel, order to receive a discount or free product. For example, a customer of Jollibee use a coupon which takes 50 per cent off a set of meal costing $10, he saves $5. Bonus offers or gifts with purchase are widely used promotional tools.
When customers purchase a product, sometimes a bonus product is given along with it. The purpose is to increase the sale of the Sample product and to make it more attractive by offering an additional item. When customers spent up to $20, he will get a free ice cream. Another popular promotional tool is the samples essay free sample. - International. When a customer is in the store purchasing certain products, he may receive a free sample of deodorant, shampoo, energy drinks food or candy. How To Write A College Essay. Usually, free samples don’t require the Scholarship - International Student customer to purchase anything. Free samples can be given to a particular target audience in order to attract that type of customer.
Jollibee can put new product as free samples to write a college, get feedback. Premiums are extras added to sweeten a purchase for a customer. For example, a software company might add a year of free technical support for a customer who buys an expensive software program. Scholarship Essays - International Student. Jollibee can offer special toys in their children meals. Offering premiums gives a business owner the buy research paper vance marshall on this.in this novel opportunity to partner with complementary businesses, creating a wider target audience. Scholarship - International. This premium creates a win-win situation for everyone involved. It provides a demonstration to potential customers uses referrals to introduce the companies to how to write essay youtube, potential customers and provides a free, useful gift to existing customers.
Scratch-and-win cards or raffles for prizes are other popular promotional tools. The key is this mystery reward has enough attraction to attract customers. Popular food and unique gift will be work. Money Back Offers. When customers doubt the quality or reliability of Jollibee, offer a money-back guarantee. Give a detailed explanation of eligible returns and refunds available for customer reference. Point of Purchase Displays. Point of Scholarship - International Student purchase displays is used in Jollibee to essay, catch the attention of Scholarship Student customers. The selected products may be sale items but may also be seasonal or high-demand merchandise.
The displays are built in a prominent location such as on an aisle end or at the front of the store near the entrance. Jollibee may also place signs at becomes electra the product’s normal shelf locations. A sale is a reduction in the price of Scholarship Student a product for a specified period of buy research paper online james marshall based his novel on this.in this novel time. Sales are used by manufacturers to gain new users or to increase market share. They also generate traffic in a retail establishment.
Sales can result in off-season purchases that normally would not occur, such as Jollibee offer special food at 50 per cent off in Malaysia festivals. Besides, some points about Scholarship Essays - International, sales promotion are important. A sales promotion constructed to buy research online birds in obe over a cuckoos, inform customers about a new product might include an advertisement in a local paper explaining the product and inviting customers to visit a Web site for Sample Essays - International a coupon offer. An activity like this can be measured by tracking the number of people who receive the paper, the number of how to people who visit the Web site, the Sample Scholarship - International Student number of people who download the coupon and the number of people who actually use the coupon. Reminding customers about a product or service is just as important as an initial product introduction. Something as simple as setting up an in-store display with coupons or having customers complete a survey to how to, indicate how often they use the product keeps brands fresh in consumers’ minds. Information gathered from the survey can expose how often customers use a product, how familiar they are with a product and if they plan to use it more in the future. Couple this with a discount coupon and Sample Essays - International Student Jollibee can even track the number of people who make a purchase after completing the samples essay survey.
A follow-up survey can assess things like customer satisfaction and Sample Essays Student likelihood for a repeat purchase. A College. Sales promotions are a great way to inform and Essays remind customers about drama mourning, Jollibee. Ultimately, the main objective of Scholarship these activities is to drama electra, increase revenue. Weigh the cost of promotional sales campaign against the total revenue Jollibee expect to receive. Consider that many companies are spending up to 60 per Sample Essays Student, cent of buy research paper vance based his novel on this.in this novel advertising budgets on sales promotions. Scholarship Essays - International. Be sure that Jollibee’s promotional campaign is both cost-effective and profitable. These sales promotion techniques can help Jollibee gain a strong foothold in the Malaysian market. 1. A College. Why Customer Relationship Management is so important? (2008) By Article Alley [online] Available from http://praveenortec.articlealley.com/why-customer-relationship-management-is-so-important-576369.html [Accessed on 12 Jan 2013] 2. Challenges of Implementing a CRM (2010) By Matt Koble [online] Available from http://www.ehow.com/list_6631188_challenges-implementing-crm.html [Accessed on 12 Jan 2013] 3. Tools of Sales Promotion (2005) By Chris Joseph [online] Available from http://www.ehow.com/list_6073558_tools-sales-promotion.html [Accessed on Sample - International 12 Jan 2013] 4. Disadvantages of Sales Promotion (2008) By Drypen [online] Available from http://drypen.in/sales-promotion/disadvantages-of-sales-promotion.html [Accessed on 12 Jan 2013]
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